Analytics, App Monetization, Resource

Improved LTV Model Based on Readers Feedback

ltv model

In previous blog posts I posted 6 different LTV calculators and received a lot of feedback about the LTV models. Turns out game publishers found them super useful for calculating the LTV of their game. It was great to hear the positive feedback which also led to a lot of conversations about how people are calculating their LTV. Here are some of the learnings I can share.

Specific LTV model is always better than generic one

All our LTV calculators can’t be nearly as accurate as the ones you can build in-house. If you have the money to hire a data sceintist or at least contract one to build a formula for you after you have gethered some data, you will end up with a more accurate model. The reason is simple, in predictive modeling, the more signals you have the more accurate the model will be. All our calculators use retention and arpdau because they need to be widely applicable. However, there are a lot more signals you can feed to a specific model: tutorial completion, level progress, soft currency engagement, challenges completed, … Factoring such signals would give you a better prediction model. Our generic calculators’ main purpose is to get you started, give you a framework to think about LTV prediction and help you do some basic modeling if you are on a budget.

Simplified spreadsheet modeling

Our original spreadsheet model was taking in 31 points of data. However, after talking with readers I learned that most of you only track 4 retention data points and 1 arpdau point. This is why I created a version that is simpler on the input side. Another feedback I received is that you want more outputs: Day 60, Day 90, Day 180 and Day 365 LTV. Here is the new calculator based on all that feedback.

Inputs:

  • Day1 retention
  • Day7 retention
  • Day14 retention
  • Day30 retention
  • ARPDAU

Outputs:

  • Day60 LTV
  • Day90 LTV
  • Day180 LTV
  • Day365 LTV

Method:

This spreadsheet is the same one from the retention modeling we presented in this post but with a few tweaks.

The actual spreadsheet

 

If you want to measure the ads LTV in addition to IAP LTV you should check out SOOMLA Traceback – Ad LTV as a Service.

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